Why Crypto MArket Cap Goes To Red: Possible Rektage explanation

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The cause of today’s chaos is likely large hedge funds using expiring BTC futures contracts as safety nets to exploit the only sure-thing in this market: a large amount of new/overextended investors who are easily moved to panic sell during a flash-crash.

On December 10, BTC futures trading went live. The first set of those contracts is set to expire tomorrow, January 17.

For those who don’t know, futures contracts are agreements to buy/sell an asset (like BTC) at a specified future date and price. As the price of BTC was ~$15,000 on Dec. 10 , the first BTC futures contracts, which expire tomorrow, were fixed at about that same price. In a simplified form, this means that tomorrow:

the “short” side of those contracts must give the “long” side a BTC (which, if they don’t already have, could simply be bought at tomorrow’s market price); and

the “long” side of those contracts must pay the “short” side $15,000 in return.

Now imagine you are a large hedge fund evaluating these contracts, and the crypto market as a whole, on Dec. 10. Obviously, making a large bet on either the “long” or “short” side is extremely risky, since the price of BTC when the contracts expire (January 17) could very easily be $50,000 or $500. This makes large bets on either side a bad option for a large institutional investor like yourself.

However, you also know that crypto is still an emerging market with a large amount of new investors and “dumb money.” And because you are a large hedge fund, futures contracts opens the door to a third option: use large bets on both sides to manufacture market chaos and make money on the ripple effects with little to no risk. Here is how:

Bet big on the “short” side of the futures contracts on Dec. 10. Let’s say you do this for 10,000 BTCs. This means that on January 17 you will owe 10,000 BTCs to the “long” side of those contracts, receiving $15k per ($150,000,000) in return.

Buy an equally large amount of BTC on Dec. 10 at the market price ($15k/BTC). This cancels out your risk/reward for the futures contracts, making you essentially immune to changes in BTC’s price while you hold both the contracts and BTCs. This also allows you to accumulate and hold an extremely large portion of the BTC market while taking little if any risk……..read full article from source below:

Source: Possible Rektage explanation



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